This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Disinflation Progress Stalls in October, U.S. Retail Sales Rise in October, Small Business Optimism Improves in October
  • The "core" Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% in October from the prior year
  • U.S. retail sales increased by 0.4% in October versus the prior month
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 93.7 in October

Top Three Market Headlines

Disinflation Progress Stalls in October: The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October from the prior month, and 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. The latter figure was the highest rate in three months. The "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in October and 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, both unchanged from September. One reason the reported rate of inflation has been little changed in recent months is on-going pressure from the shelter index, the largest CPI component, which rose 0.4% in October from the prior month, or 4.9% on an annual basis.

U.S. Retail Sales Rise in October: The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that sales at U.S. retail and restaurant establishments increased by 0.4% in October over the prior month, while sales for September were revised upward to a 0.8% monthly rise from a previously reported 0.4%. Driving the October gains was automobile sales, which jumped 1.6% and accounted for almost three-quarters of the overall monthly sales increase. Excluding sales of automobiles, however, the rise in sales was more modest at 0.1%. Restaurant sales also improved in October, gaining 0.7% versus the prior month.

Small Business Optimism Improves in October: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism rose in October for the second straight month, advancing 2.2% to a level of 93.7. Despite the increase, this marked the 34th consecutive month the index fell below its 50-year average of 98. More small business owners than not reported lower nominal sales in the past three months, though the percent of owners expecting higher future sales volumes improved. Similar to prior months, inflation and labor remained top concerns of owners: 23% cited inflation as the most important issue in operating their business, while 35% reported an inability to fill job openings.

As of November 15, 2024 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -2.33% -0.97% 17.51% 25.09%
S&P 500 -2.05% 2.03% 24.56% 32.22%
Russell 2000 -3.96% 3.44% 14.99% 29.73%
MSCI EAFE -2.57% -7.67% 4.32% 11.91%
MSCI Emerging Markets -4.45% -7.36% 8.26% 13.01%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -1.88% -2.55% 12.97% 27.24%
Bloomberg Commodity -1.98% -3.67% 1.97% -2.05%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.85% -2.98% 1.33% 7.12%

NFIB 11/12/2024, US Department of Labor 11/13/2024, U.S. Census Bureau 11/15/2024. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory, named and independent fiduciary services are offered through Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC is a single-member, limited-liability company, with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC nor their affiliates provide accounting, legal or tax advice. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.