This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Hiring Slows in October, Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Business Surveys Weaken in October
  • U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 150,000 in September
  • The Federal Reserve held the federal-funds target rate range at 5.25%-5.50%
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index registered 46.7% in October

Top Three Market Headlines

Hiring Slows in October: The Labor Department reported last week that employers in the U.S. added 150,000 jobs in October, which was approximately half the number of additions in the prior month and the smallest monthly gain since June. At the same time, the previously-reported estimated gains for August and September were revised downward by a combined 101,000. Industries seeing the most job additions in October were health care and government, while employment in manufacturing declined due to strike activity. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8% in September, while average hourly wages rose at a 4.1% annual rate, down from September's 4.3% pace.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady: The Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee voted last week to maintain the federal-funds interest rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50%. This was the second straight meeting at which the Fed held the target steady after having raised it to this level in July. At the same time, the Fed continues to reduce its portfolio of securities holdings. Between these combined moves, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that current monetary policy is 'restrictive' and pressuring economic activity and inflation, but also noted that the latter remains well above the central bank's longer-run goal of 2%.

Business Surveys Weaken in October: Business activity across the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors weakened in October, according to surveys of executives conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Manufacturing Index recorded 46.7% for the month of October, down from 49.0% in September. This was the 12th consecutive month the index fell below the 50% threshold that differentiates expansion of activity from contraction. Activity in the services sector continued to expand, as the ISM Services Index registered 51.8% for October, though this was down from 53.6% in the prior month.

As of November 06, 2023 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 5.31% 0.98% 11.14% 18.18%
S&P 500 5.88% 1.75% 15.05% 19.14%
Russell 2000 7.59% -1.28% 1.23% 0.51%
MSCI EAFE 4.43% 0.05% 7.13% 20.62%
MSCI Emerging Markets 3.12% -0.40% 1.42% 13.11%
FTSE NAREIT 13.11% 1.35% -0.82% 2.45%
Bloomberg Commodity -0.82% 0.90% -2.58% -2.61%
Barclays U.S. Aggregate 1.99% 0.68% -0.53% 2.99%
ISM 11/1/2023 & 11/3/2023, WSJ 11/3/2023, US Dep’t of Labor 11/3/2023, Federal Reserve 11/1/2023. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA") is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary/named and independent fiduciary services. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of AJG or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Securities may be offered through Triad Advisors, LLC ("Triad"), member FINRA/SIPC. Triad is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Triad. Neither Triad, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice.