This Weekly Market Update reviews the top market headlines: Leading Indicators Point to Moderating Growth, Cloudier Outlook for the U.S. Economy, IMF Forecasts Slower Glower Economic Growth
  • The Leading Economic Index increased by 0.3% in March
  • The Federal Reserve published its third Beige Book of 2022
  • The IMF cut its 2022 global economic growth forecast to 3.6%

Top Three Market Headlines

Leading Indicators Point to Moderating Growth: The Conference Board announced last week that its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of ten U.S. economic indicators intended to signal turning points in the economy, increased 0.3% in March from the prior month. This was a deceleration from a monthly rise of 0.6% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, the LEI rose 6.4%, the lowest annual growth rate in the last 12 months. According to the Conference Board, this trend points to continued, but moderate, U.S. economic growth in the near term. The Conference Board projects 3.0% year-over-year U.S. GDP growth in 2022, short of the 5.6% increase seen in 2021.

Cloudier Outlook for the U.S. Economy: The Federal Reserve last week released its latest Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal information about current economic conditions collected eight times a year by the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. The report indicated that the U.S. economy managed to grow at a moderate pace since mid-February. On the bright side, manufacturing activity was described as solid across most Districts. At the same time, the report noted that outlooks for future growth were clouded by geopolitical tensions and rising inflation. To the latter point, firms across all Districts reported steep increases in raw materials, transportation, and labor costs.

IMF Forecasts Slower Global Economic Growth: Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its estimate for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.6%, down from a 4.4% forecast in January. The organization now expects the pace of global growth to slow significantly as the economic effects of the war in Ukraine continue to be felt world-wide. The IMF also increased its 2022 inflation projections to 5.7% for advanced economies and 8.7% for developing economies, amid increased commodity prices and broadening price pressures.

As of April 25, 2022 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -2.66% -5.52% -10.58% -2.36%
S&P 500 -2.74% -5.65% -9.99% 4.76%
Russell 2000 -3.20% -6.22% -13.28% -12.14%
MSCI EAFE -1.53% -4.37% -10.02% -6.82%
MSCI Emerging Markets -3.33% -5.64% -12.22% -18.00%
FTSE NAREIT 0.98% 1.10% -2.79% 20.46%
Bloomberg Commodity -2.55% 3.76% 30.27% 46.89%
Barclays U.S. Aggregate -1.04% -3.78% -9.49% -8.71%

Bloomberg 4/20/2022; IMF.org ___; The Conference Board 4/21/2022; Federal Reserve 4/20/2022. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA") is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary/named and independent fiduciary services. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of AJG or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Securities may be offered through Triad Advisors, LLC ("Triad"), member FINRA/SIPC. Triad is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Triad. Neither Triad, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice