The social housing sector is navigating the challenges of operating in a high-demand market, made more complex by extreme weather. These weather events have significantly altered the sector’s risk landscape, from the supply chain to the production stage, as well as the embedded financial risks.
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Extreme weather is a major financial risk across today's global markets. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events leads to geological instability, demographic changes, resource scarcity and economic uncertainty. With regards to the social housing sector, the effects are visible in various ways: higher borrowing costs, increased insurance premiums and fluctuations in funding availability from public and private sources.

Supply chain disruptions

The economic risks from extreme weather for global trade are estimated to be approximately USD81 billion1.

Extreme weather events can bring about significant disruptions in the global supply chain. In the housing sector, this can mean a shortage of both raw materials and good quality building supplies, as well as rising transportation costs and supply delays.

As social housing providers often rely on cost-efficient global supply chains, disruptions in one country can spill over to the entire production timescale, disrupting or even halting projects in the UK. This highlights the need for housing providers to ensure they have alternative suppliers and contractors to maintain business continuity and bottom lines.

Production stage challenges

Adverse weather events cause delays in 45 percent of construction projects globally, resulting in billions of dollars in additional expenses and lost revenue2.

Extreme weather also impacts aspects of construction during the production stage, including excavation, tunnelling and hot works. Changing water tables affects a site's susceptibility to flooding. Increased winds affect lifting operations and work conducted at elevated heights. Furthermore, equipment and materials on site must be stored suitably to protect against the possibility of adverse weather.

Hot and humid weather significantly impacts worker productivity in construction. There is a considerable decline in productivity, particularly during the warmest periods. Flooding and snowfall can also cause delays, as workers cannot reach sites or sites become unworkable. Additionally, there are potential health and safety hazards for the workers when they do return to work.

The UK is seeing a massive drop in the number of skilled workers in the construction sector due to various economic and political factors3. This has led to rising wages due to labour shortages. Unpredictable weather aggravates the situation, affecting construction budgets and timelines.

Weather migration risk

Extreme weather is causing increased migration as millions of people are displaced due to flooding, hurricanes, severe storms, wildfires, extreme heat and related disasters. The ensuing changes in settlement patterns will inevitably impact the UK's social housing, which already has a shortage of more than 300,000 homes4.

High demand and the shortage of affordable housing have led to providers venturing into areas at higher risk from extreme weather, such as flood plains5. However, building too many homes in such locations puts the housing supply at further risk and must be considered with long-term impacts in mind6.

Impact on design and infrastructure

As extreme weather events become more severe, their impact on future buildings will also increase. Failure to factor this into plans could lead to unsustainable buildings that are inadequate to withstand extreme weather, resulting in substantial business losses7.

To address this, several factors need to be considered during the design phase. These include building separation, foundation quality, elevation, using non-combustible materials, and the ability to withstand high winds and temperatures. Appropriate provisions must also be incorporated to address potential energy and water scarcity.

The augmented financial risk

As it is, the housing finance ecosystem has already distributed risks among multiple industry participants. These participants have recently navigated financial headwinds in the global economy, rising inflation and unpredictable interest rates.

The financial impact of extreme weather events has necessitated a reassessment of future risk tolerance. Today, the sector faces a massive challenge in meeting the nation's housing needs due to inequitable access to credit in a heightened-risk environment8.

Green Bond: A Sustainable Financial Tool

With the mandate to build environmentally friendly housing and reduce emissions9, decarbonising the housing construction sector through supportable financing is vital. Considering this, social housing providers may issue green bonds to attract investors interested in sustainable initiatives. Green bonds are specifically meant to finance projects with a positive environmental impact, such as energy-efficient retrofits, renewable energy installations and sustainable construction practices.


Sources

1 "Climate Change's Disruptive Impact on Global Supply Chains and the Urgent Call for Resilience," Economist, accessed 15 September 2024.

2 Schuldt, Steven J., et al. "Weather-Related Construction Delays in a Changing Climate: A Systematic State-of-the-Art Review," MDPI, accessed 15 September 2024.

3 O'Carroll, Lisa. "Shortfall of 330,000 Workers in UK Due to Brexit, Say Thinktanks," The Guardian, 17 January 2023.

4 Georgieva, Gerry, and Anthony Reuben. "New Homes: What's the New Government's Housebuilding Target?" BBC, 2 August 2024.

5 Shankleman, Jess. "London's Housing and Climate Crises On a Collision Course," Bloomberg, accessed 15 September 2024.

6 Rothstein, Steven and Joe Weisbord. "Housing Finance and Climate Risk: Taking Action in an Uncertain Future," Research Institute for Housing America, 9 February 2023.

7 Jensen, Chris. "Designing Homes for Extreme Weather," Pursuit (University of Melbourne), accessed 15 September 2024.

8 "The Finances and Sustainability of the Social Housing Sector — Report Summary," UK Parliament, 8 May 2024.

9 "2022 Final Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistical Release," Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 6 February 2024. PDF file.


Disclaimer

The sole purpose of this article is to provide guidance on the issues covered. This article is not intended to give legal advice, and, accordingly, it should not be relied upon. It should not be regarded as a comprehensive statement of the law and/or market practice in this area. We make no claims as to the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein or in the links which were live at the date of publication. You should not act upon (or should refrain from acting upon) information in this publication without first seeking specific legal and/or specialist advice. Arthur J. Gallagher Insurance Brokers Limited accepts no liability for any inaccuracy, omission or mistake in this publication, nor will we be responsible for any loss which may be suffered as a result of any person relying on the information contained herein.