This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Consumer Inflation Edges Higher in January, U.S. Reveals Tariff Plans, Retail Sales Dip in January
  • The core CPI rose at a 3.3% annual rate in January
  • The U.S. announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports
  • U.S retail sales decreased 0.9% in January

Top Three Market Headlines

Consumer Inflation Edges Higher in January: The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January from December, the fastest rate in 17 months. Compared to the prior year the CPI increased 3.0%, up from a pace of 2.9% in December. Key factors driving the index higher in January included shelter, food, and energy, which were up 0.4%, 0.4%, and 1.1%, respectively, on a monthly basis. The "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.4% on the month, the highest rate in ten months, and 3.3% on a year-over year basis, up a tick from December's 3.2% pace.

U.S. Reveals Tariff Plans: President Trump last week announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S., effective March 12. The policy, which provided no exceptions for any countries, could particularly impact Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, all top steel suppliers to the U.S. The move came just a week after the U.S. applied a 10% duty on Chinese goods. Later in the week, the President also directed his advisors to develop a plan for applying reciprocal tariffs, according to which import taxes would be customized for each U.S. trading partner based on their respective tariffs on U.S. goods and application of other nontrade barriers deemed unfair by the U.S., such as regulations or subsidies.

Retail Sales Dip in January: U.S. retailers endured a post-holiday hangover in January, as total sales across retail and food service establishments dropped 0.9% on the month compared to December, the U.S. Census Bureau reported last week. While this was the largest monthly decline in nearly two years, it followed a string of four straight months when sales advanced at a pace of at least 0.6%. Key business categories dragging down January's results included motor vehicles & parts dealers (-2.8%) and non-store (i.e., internet) retailers (-1.9%), and food & beverage stores (-0.1%).

As of February 14, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 1.74% 5.21% 5.21% 20.51%
S&P 500 1.52% 4.11% 4.11% 23.96%
Russell 2000 0.05% 2.33% 2.33% 14.86%
MSCI EAFE 2.65% 8.30% 8.30% 13.38%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1.54% 4.79% 4.79% 15.37%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 0.28% 2.50% 2.50% 16.84%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.68% 7.78% 7.78% 16.63%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.19% 1.12% 1.12% 4.42%

US Census Bureau 2/14/2025, U.S. Dept of Labor 2/12/2025, Wall Street Journal 2/11/2025, 2/13/2025, Bloomberg 2/14/2025. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory, named and independent fiduciary services are offered through Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC is a single-member, limited-liability company, with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC nor their affiliates provide accounting, legal or tax advice. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.