This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Administration Hits Pause on Reciprocal Tariff Plan, Consumer Price Index Falls in March, Small Business Optimism Slips Again in March
  • The U.S. announced a 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariff plan
  • The core CPI rose at a 2.8% annual rate in March
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 97.4 in March

Top Three Market Headlines

Administration Hits Pause on Reciprocal Tariff Plan: The U.S. last Wednesday declared a 90-day pause on the "reciprocal" tariffs on over 75 countries that were announced just one week prior, while leaving intact the universal 10% baseline duty that was simultaneously assigned to all imports. China, however, was excluded from the tariff reprieve, and the U.S. instead increased the tariff rate on Chinese imports to 125%. The news jolted U.S. stock markets higher, with the S&P 500 index jumping 9.5% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index surged more than 12%, its best day in 24 years.

Consumer Price Index Falls in March: The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% over the month of March. Compared to the prior year the CPI was 2.4% higher, down from an annual pace of 2.8% in February. Key factors driving the index lower in March included transportation and energy, which were down 1.4%, and 2.4%, respectively, on a monthly basis. The "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.1% on the month and 2.8% on a year-over-year basis, the latter being the slowest annual rate since March 2021.

Small Business Optimism Slips Again in March: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index continued declining in March, falling for the third straight month to 97.4. This put the index just below its 51-year average of 98. The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve over the next six months dipped 16 points from February to 21%, the largest monthly decline since December 2020―though this remained far above its level of -36 one year prior. Like prior months, labor quality and taxes were cited by owners as the most important problems in running their business.

As of April 11, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 3.49% -4.35% -5.62% 3.59%
S&P 500 5.73% -4.38% -8.47% 4.57%
Russell 2000 1.83% -7.51% -16.28% -7.68%
MSCI EAFE 0.82% -4.17% 2.41% 2.70%
MSCI Emerging Markets -3.83% -4.98% -2.20% 1.48%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -0.20% -8.01% -7.16% 5.16%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.89% -4.50% 3.98% 4.01%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -2.54% -1.68% 1.06% 5.25%

US Dep't of Labor 4/10/2025, WSJ.com 4/9/2025, NFIB 4/8/2025. FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory, named and independent fiduciary services are offered through Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC is a single- member, limited-liability company, with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC nor their affiliates provide accounting, legal or tax advice. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.