Casualty
Reinsurers continued to scrutinize the underlying trends and dynamics of the casualty market at the 1.1.2025 renewal, and differentiated cedants that were able to provide evidenced-based arguments that their portfolios were performing better than a tabular assessment might suggest.
Buyers that provided reinsurers with a clear, data-driven analysis of their underwriting and claims strategy, to evidence why the future profitability was better than in the past, achieved most favorable pricing outcomes.
Perhaps more importantly, they also obtained preferred treatment in capacity allocation in a market where some reinsurers were looking to pare back capacity and others were looking to selectively grow.
In the US, underlying profitability and loss trends remained complicated and, for this renewal, there was consternation around the ultimate profitability of the more recent accident years 2021-2023 when current loss reserves are extrapolated to ultimate.
This year, we reached a level of intense underwriting scrutiny not seen for several decades. Reinsurers had a laser focus on loss trends, actions taken by buyers to improve the future profitability of their portfolio from an underwriting, reserving, and claims management perspective, and how they were quantifying that improvement.
Portfolios that demonstrated this with qualitative, and more importantly quantitative, analysis were positively differentiated in the market and secured capacity with more stable pricing outcomes.
For quota share programs, nominal changes in ceding commissions ranged between -1.0% to +1.0%, albeit those changes were predominantly a consequence of a shift in portfolio composition, rather than risk-adjusted movements.
For excess of loss programs, risk-adjusted pricing changes were between -5% and +5%. In some instances, to manage pricing pressures, buyers adopted tweaks to their structures to achieve more stable economics, but overall demand remained broadly stable.
While pricing was a feature of the negotiations, this renewal season was less about pricing and more about capacity — and reinsurers deciding which buyers they wanted to partner with.
Rather than negotiating around the renowned challenges in casualty, Gallagher Re focused on proactively positioning clients with evidence-based insight in order to convert underwriting and claims actions they had taken into tangible performance outcomes. This helped reinsurers build greater confidence in the portfolio's performance, which led them to offer the best possible pricing, and maximize their capacity.
In the International market, the spotlight was focused on direct and indirect US liability exposure, excess auto liability, and coverage related to PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, also known as 'forever chemicals'). Also, while to date, 'social' inflation has been a US phenomenon, some markets expressed concerns about signs of it emerging in the EU.
Similar to US dynamics, reinsurers demanded granular detail and where that was provided, optimal outcomes were achieved, with few exclusions being sought. Books with greater exposure to the US attracted risk-adjusted price scrutiny above the average.
Those buyers that proactively took action to derisk their books (writing lower limits, excluding PFAS, increasing attachment points for excess auto, etc.) were rewarded with rate concessions, albeit many cedants felt greater recognition from reinsurers was required.
Capacity for non-US risk was bolstered by some new market entrants, notably from Bermuda that, looked to participate with smaller lines. In the main, while there were more expressions of interest from new reinsurers, cedants chose to align themselves with incumbents, opting to preserve long term relationships.
As such, non-US renewals that ran loss-free got home with to up -10% risk-adjusted decreases, while impacted accounts were flat to +10%.
International & Motor